Israel votes on Tuesday in the most consequential election in a generation. It is the first general election since the 7 October attacks and three years of regional war, and it arrives with the country deeply divided over security, the future of Gaza, the power of the courts and the place of religion in public life. Final polls put the governing coalition and the main opposition bloc almost neck and neck, with neither side close to the 61 seats needed to govern in the 120 seat Knesset. Whatever the result, the vote is unlikely to settle Israel's arguments. It may only decide who gets the first chance to try.
For readers following the region, our world coverage tracks the election and its aftermath, alongside our politics coverage.
A view across Tel Aviv showing the city and its coastline.
Credit: Eugenie Vasilyeff, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
1. A country voting after war
No Israeli election has taken place in circumstances like these. The 7 October attacks killed around 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage, and the war that followed reshaped the region. At Nir Oz, one of the kibbutzim attacked that day, 47 people were killed and 76 taken hostage, according to the BBC. Those events hang over this campaign in a way no manifesto can match. For many voters, the question is not only who should lead, but who bears responsibility for the failures that allowed the attacks to happen, and who can be trusted to prevent the next ones.
The campaign has also been shaped by the wars that followed: in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran. Israel's security debate, always central, now dominates everything else. Netanyahu has campaigned on his record as a security leader, presenting himself as the only figure strong enough to protect the country. His opponents argue that security failed on his watch, and that a leader who presided over the worst attack in the country's history should not be given another term. Both arguments are heard in the same households, and the closeness of the polls reflects that split.
2. Two men, two very different pitches
The contest has narrowed, in the public mind, to two men. On one side stands Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister, leading his right wing Likud party. On the other stands Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who leads the new centrist party Yashar. CNN's election preview describes Eisenkot as Netanyahu's principal challenger, and the final polls agree: Yashar has led Likud in most surveys, though the gap varies by pollster.
Eisenkot's pitch is built on competence and institutional repair. He has vowed to enforce court rulings on drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into military service, a long running dispute that has split past coalitions. He has also promised to end Hamas rule of Gaza within 18 months, either through a United States led peace plan or by military means. His supporters present him as a steady military professional who can restore trust in institutions. His critics, including Netanyahu's camp, question whether a political newcomer can hold together a coalition and handle the pressures of the job.
Netanyahu, by contrast, has campaigned on security and experience, casting his rivals as soft on security. His supporters point to his long record, his relationship with Washington and his handling of the wars. His critics point to his ongoing corruption trial, the deepening divisions of recent years and the security failure of 7 October. The Jerusalem Post's polling roundup found that while Eisenkot leads in party polling, the question of who is best suited to be prime minister has also moved in his favour, though by a steady rather than dramatic margin.
3. The polls point to deadlock
If the final polls are right, election night will settle very little. Haaretz reported that the final surveys from Israel's three main television channels all showed Eisenkot's bloc ahead by two to six seats, but with neither bloc reaching 61. Channel 12 put Eisenkot's bloc at 56 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's, Channel 13 put the blocs at 54 and 50, and public broadcaster Kan put them at 52 and 50. One pollster, Channel 14, which leans towards Netanyahu, put Likud ahead of Yashar, a reminder that polling in Israel is itself contested ground.
The arithmetic matters because Israel's system rewards blocs, not just parties. Voters choose a party list, not a candidate, and seats are shared out in proportion to votes, provided a party clears the 3.25 percent threshold. Al Jazeera's explainer notes that about 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, that parties then have 28 days to build a coalition, and that failure means another election. Israel has been here before: between 2019 and 2022 it held five elections in less than four years. Few voters want a repeat, but the polls suggest it cannot be ruled out.
The opposition's problem is fragmentation. Eisenkot has parties led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former defence minister Avigdor Liberman to his right, and the Democrats led by Yair Golan to his left. Bennett and Liberman have not endorsed Eisenkot, and both have their own ambitions for the top job. Netanyahu's bloc, by contrast, is more disciplined, built around Likud, two far right parties and two ultra-Orthodox parties. That discipline could matter more in coalition talks than in the vote itself.
4. The voters who could decide it
Two groups could tip the balance. The first is the roughly half a million first-time voters, many of them young Israelis whose political memories begin with the pandemic, the judicial overhaul protests and the war. The second is the some 70,000 Israelis reported to have flown in from abroad to vote, since Israel has no general absentee ballot and requires voters to be physically present on election day, with diplomats as the main exception.
Then there is the Arab vote. Around one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab, many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Arab parties were projected to win 14 to 16 seats in the final polls, and neither Jewish bloc can reach a majority without them or without defections across the divide. That fact makes Arab voters, often treated as a sideshow in Israeli campaigns, potentially the most important constituency in the coalition talks that follow. Whether any government can be built with their support, and on what terms, is one of the central questions of this election.
On Saturday night, opposition crowds gathered in central Tel Aviv demanding change, a scene that captured the mood of a campaign that has felt, at times, like a referendum on the country's direction rather than a choice between party platforms. The city, Israel's commercial and cultural centre, has long leaned against Netanyahu. The question is whether that energy reaches beyond Tel Aviv into the towns and suburbs where elections are won.
5. What happens after the votes are counted
The likeliest outcome, on the polls, is a period of hard bargaining. If Eisenkot's bloc finishes ahead but short of 61, he will need to hold together parties that disagree on the Palestinian question, religion and the economy, while persuading at least some Arab lawmakers or defectors to support him. If Netanyahu's bloc surprises and finishes ahead, he will face the same arithmetic from the other side, and the same problem of ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions that has broken his coalitions before.
TRT World's polling report noted that Eisenkot led Netanyahu 43 percent to 38 percent on the question of who is best suited to be prime minister, a personal edge that may matter in coalition talks, where party leaders weigh who can actually command a government. But personal popularity does not build coalitions. Numbers do, and the numbers point to weeks of negotiation.
There is also the wider region to consider. Whoever forms the next government will inherit the Gaza question, the relationship with Washington, the confrontation with Iran and the trial of a former prime minister that continues in the background. The election will not settle those issues. It will decide who faces them, and with what mandate. That is why this vote matters beyond Israel's borders, and why our news coverage will follow the coalition talks closely, with further analysis in our opinion section. Readers who want the background can also visit our about page for how we cover elections and international affairs.
Israel has voted many times in recent years, and each time the result has been described as pivotal. This time, for once, the description fits. A country that has fought a long war, buried its dead and argued bitterly about its future now gets to choose who leads it next. The polls say it has not yet decided.
Source: BBC, Deeply divided Israel braces for pivotal election
